US and Iran trade fresh attacks over Strait of Hormuz as Tehran tries to close off rival route
Most of the projectiles have been flying across the Persian Gulf recently, despite the US-Iran agreement to extend their ceasefire and negotiate a lasting peace.
On Saturday, Iran launched drones in Bahrain, which is home to a US military base. The Islamic Republic may also be responsible for attacking a merchant ship.
That came a day after US Central Command said it hit Iranian missile and drone sites and coastal radar sites in response to earlier attacks on ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
It was the latest attempt by Tehran to intimidate ships that do not use the state-sanctioned route through the narrow waterway that is crucial to the global energy market and a major source of energy for Iran.
Meanwhile, the US previously unveiled an alternative route along the coast of Oman and said on Saturday it had been expanded to accommodate inbound and outbound traffic, making it more attractive as goods bottled up in the Gulf during the war need to get out.
“Iran is likely to try to prevent ships from using non-Iranian naval ports immediately as it continues negotiations with Gulf Arab states to ensure long-term recognition of its control,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a report on Friday.
The think tank also highlighted other efforts to undermine Iran’s influence over the seas. For example, Oman and the International Maritime Organization are developing a mechanism to help hundreds of ships navigate the route along the Omani coast.
The Central Command also said it was providing “secure communication” in the crisis, while the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council on Thursday issued a joint statement on Thursday emphasizing free movement on the road and rejecting any payments, fees, or other attempts to seek control.
Iran responded with drone strikes and further warnings that safe passage on the road cannot rely on “similar routes” or decision-making outside of Tehran, according to ISW.
At the same time, the kingdom is engaged in negotiations with its Gulf neighbors in an effort to strengthen its control over the strait. But the ISW said it was ineffective, adding that Iran could not continue to rely on military options.
“Iran needs the recognition of the Gulf states for its control over the Iranian Strait so that it can control the strait because it cannot attack indefinitely without risking instability and further attacks,” the note said.
The renewed tensions follow the first meeting last weekend between the US and Iran since an extended ceasefire was signed.
While both sides are reporting progress, there is much work to be done to address Iran’s nuclear program, cut off its assets, and ease US sanctions—not to mention the continued conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
Its shutdown shortly after the US and Israel launched their war on Iran paralyzed energy markets around the world, and a return to normal is expected to take months.
The US has not been able to restore freedom of navigation, despite its pastoral power through the use of many ships, allowing Iran to hold the threat of another shutdown of the world economy.
With that knowledge, Tehran has tried to normalize its control, establishing the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and insisting it can levy tolls on ships.
Recent drone attacks on commercial ships have upped the ante, while the US is also stepping up its effort to poke a bigger hole in the strain. On Saturday, the Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level in the crisis to “severe” from “moderate.”
“But be prepared for it to go back to S#!T at any moment,” said Campbell University professor Sal Mercogliano, who specializes in military and naval history, in a post on X.
