Donald Trump may be the accidental hero of a feel-good climate story as a creeping horror story plays out nearby | Adam Morton

Two real-life weather-themed movies play out the same all over the world. They are about the world today, but they are also a snapshot of the future. The first is a horror story that builds slowly; second, a fun summer hit. Both are worth watching.

Horror movies tend to be box office gold, so let’s start there. The World Health Organization says Europe’s worst heat wave has killed more than 1,300 people. But everyone knows that amount will end up being less than the claim.

In the summer of 2022, the final estimate of heat-related deaths on the continent was over 60,000. The last 10 days have been very hot. As the Guardian’s Damian Carrington reported, scientists from the World Weather Attribution consortium found nearly half of Europe’s 850 major cities were enduring the worst heat stress in recorded history. Temperatures have been 5C and 12C above annual averages.

The horrific destruction caused by the twin earthquakes in Venezuela has drawn global attention and aid as the confirmed death toll has risen past 1,900 and could exceed 10,000. A heatwave is a completely different type of disaster. It’s slogan-free, non-violent and invisible. There is no call for an international force of thousands of rescuers to help, as happened in Caracas. But the number of lives lost could be huge.

The heatwave also disrupted the lives of countless others. It tore through the German Autobahn, forcing a lane closure. It has blocked train lines, damaged power lines, disabled medical equipment and forced the shutdown of nuclear plants due to regulations that prohibit the use of rivers to cool reactors when temperatures become too high.

Scientists found daytime temperatures in recent days would not have happened in the European heatwave of 1976, and 10 times less likely when temperatures increased in 2003. It took a fundamental increase in global temperatures – caused by the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere – to happen now. It is the growing role of man-made climate change in action.

There are versions of this around the world, including in Australia, where early signs suggest the southern continent could be heading for its warmest winter on record. Your ski season, which is set to get off to a good start as the school holidays begin this week, depends on artificial snow. It is part of what the best evidence of what the future holds. With the recently announced El Niño weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean, that future may feel like it’s accelerating in the coming months.

A feelgood movie is the best place to be. There may be a surprising danger hero: Donald J Trump.

His unjustified attack on Iran next to Israel, and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait, which accounts for about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply, have created new considerations on how countries can gain freedom from global fossil oil trade. In the short term, there are examples of decisions that have strengthened the use of fossil fuels. But the focus is also on how to increase clean energy and electrification in the name of energy security and cost reduction.

This movement had already begun. For the first time, renewable energy – solar, wind and hydro – last year overtook coal-fired power as the leading source of electricity, providing a third of the global total. Add nuclear – non-renewable, but zero emissions – and the total non-fossil generation was 42%.

Solar energy is growing at an amazing rate. Increase by 30% by 2025 – the single largest annual increase of any energy source in history. Battery storage – not the power source itself, but required as part of a solar and wind-driven package – has grown by 66% from a low base.

The reasons for sunlight are not complicated. It’s relatively cheap, increasingly consumer-friendly, and doesn’t depend on fuel having to be shipped from elsewhere. In a recent speech, the UN secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, noted that the cost of solar and batteries have fallen by 90% and 95% respectively in the last 15 years, while the cost of wind power has fallen by 70%. He pointed out that they offer the world a “clean way out” of the energy crisis, summarizing: “Renewables are the cheapest, fastest and most sustainable source of new electricity in the world.”

In Pakistan, one of the top 20 countries in the world, solar power has increased tenfold in four years as gas power has become unreliable and grid electricity has become more expensive. Solar electricity last year accounted for more than 25% of the country’s electricity, prompting the government to cancel the purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG) planned for this financial year.

In the EU, solar and wind will provide around 30% of electricity in 2025, up from 19% in 2021. The last shock in fossil fuel prices, after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, played a role in the change. According to thinktank Ember, solar in the EU has recorded annual growth of around 20% for four straight years, and renewable energy now accounts for 48% of total generation. Fossil fuels fell to 29%.

Even in the US, where Trump and the Republicans have destroyed renewable energy and coal production has re-emerged, low-cost solar and batteries are winning. The pair provided 91% of the country’s new generation capacity in the first quarter this year, and Ember reported that May marked the first time that solar provided more electricity in the US than coal.

China, like many things, stands alone. It uses more electricity than the US, Europe and India combined, and adds more renewable energy than the rest of the world. Twenty years ago, coal provided about 80% of its energy. That ratio has now dropped to around 50%. Its coal generation is still falling, and it continues to build new coal plants. But many are left off as often as they are on.

China is also the world leader in the production and purchase of electric vehicles. Two-thirds of cars and at least 25% of large vehicles sold in China this year are expected to be EVs. Globally, the EV share is likely to be 27%, up from 9% five years ago, according to BloombergNEF. But expect that to speed up.

In India, the Delhi government this week announced it will ban new license plates for light trucks and three-wheelers from next year, and motorcycles and scooters in two years. Only electric models will be allowed. In Africa, Ethiopia has already banned the import of new petrol cars, partly to save fuel costs.

None of these developments change the scale of the work ahead. Global carbon emissions are still beginning to decline. Most of the new clean energy powers growing demand, not replacing coal, gas or oil. Like many good movies, this story also has a terrible villain. Fossil fuel interests and their supporters will continue to fight for the old model.

But the changes taking place in the solar industry, transportation and energy storage underscore why there is a new buzzword in the effort to fight the climate crisis: electrification. It is at the heart of this year’s UN climate conference agenda, and the focus of a major campaign by governments, businesses, researchers and campaigners under the banner of Electrify Now.

The idea is very simple. Electricity can already meet about 75% of the world’s energy needs using existing technologies. It’s more efficient, and healthier, than burning gasoline. It will grow from clean sources, because in most cases it is the cheapest.

It is reason for worthy hope. And, perhaps, the premise of an entire franchise — with sequels, spin-offs, the works — about much-needed progress in dealing with this era-defining threat.