Hurricane Threat in Southern California: 90% Chance of Disturbance Turning into Depression

A tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours, while weather models cited by Southern California forecasters show it could become a hurricane later this week before weakening and potentially moving into the region.USA National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the system, designated EP95, its identifier for the eastern Pacific disturbance being monitored, was well off the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday night and was moving generally northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Showers and storms remained disorganized, but conditions favored further development.An earlier outlook from the NHC had put the 48-hour probability of formation at 80% and the seven-day probability at 90%, figures cited by National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Bryan Lewis. The center later raised the short-term probability to 90%.A tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. According to official NHC classifications, a tropical storm has winds of 39 to 73 mph, while hurricane strength starts at 74 mph.“Once the depression forms, the National Hurricane Center will probably write a discussion about it and include probabilities of tropical storm or even hurricane formation, so keep an eye on that,” Lewis said.The NHC has not yet issued an official track or intensity forecast for EP95, meaning projections of a hurricane and a possible approach to Southern California remain model scenarios rather than an official forecast.

Models show possible focus on Southern California

Kaj Goldberg, a meteorologist for KTLA, a Los Angeles television station, said forecasters were watching the disturbance closely. The station said weather prediction models showed a strong chance of an eye developing off Baja California on Thursday, although the NHC has not forecast an eye forming at this time. “This is the disturbance that, if it forms and comes together, could come directly to Southern California within a week or so,” Goldberg said.He said the system could reach hurricane strength on Friday or Saturday before weakening Saturday night or early Sunday. According to the scenario discussed by KTLA, it could move further north and make landfall in Southern California as a tropical storm.The station said such a track could lead to heavy rain and extreme humidity over the next week, with possible flooding.The NWS is more cautious about those potential impacts. Lewis separately told the Los Angeles Times that there was still a high degree of uncertainty about whether the developing system would bring rain to Southern California, although higher surf and stronger rip currents were more likely over the Labor Day weekend.

Tropical storm rarely makes landfall in California

Direct impacts of tropical storms from the Pacific are rare in California. An unnamed storm hit near Long Beach in 1939, while Hurricane Nora entered California as a tropical storm in 1997 after first making landfall in Mexico, according to the NWS. “However, several tropical systems have weakened below tropical storm strength before making landfall,” Lewis said. “More recently, Hilary brought significant rainfall and impacts to Southern California in August 2023. “Hilary was not a tropical storm when it hit California.”The final NHC analysis found that Hilary lost its tropical characteristics in northern Baja California and became post-tropical before moving into southern California. Despite weakening, it caused significant rainfall and flooding in the region.

Karina reaches category 3 ahead of schedule

The disturbance is developing during an active period in the Pacific. KTLA reported that three storms were contributing to increased surf in Southern California, including Hurricane Karina, which was then a Category 1 storm and was forecast to potentially reach Category 3 late Monday night or early Tuesday.Karina got stronger much faster. By Sunday afternoon it had become a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph as it remained off the coast and moved westward. There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect, although the NHC said its storm surge would generate dangerous waves and rip currents along southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula.The NWS separately warned of a high risk of rip currents along Los Angeles County beaches. An earlier forecast on Sunday called for waves of up to 6 feet and water temperatures of up to 76 degrees Fahrenheit, while a later update called for temperatures of 71 to 75 degrees.

Marine heat wave keeps coastal waters unusually warm

KTLA linked the potential storm to a “super” El Niño brewing in the Pacific and noted that the weather pattern is associated with warmer waters in the eastern Pacific.Citing NWS data, it reported sea surface temperatures across Southern California between 5 and 10 degrees above normal for the time of year, with readings of 74 to 76 degrees along Los Angeles County beaches.However, the relationship between El Niño and the current marine heat wave is more nuanced. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has tracked a marine heat wave off central and southern California since May 2025, before the current El Niño developed. NOAA says the most recent warming in Southern California may increasingly reflect the influence of El Niño.

El Niño has more than 90% chance of becoming very strong

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and can affect atmospheric circulation and tropical cyclone activity.The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, says El Niño is strengthening and has a more than 90% chance of becoming a “very strong event” during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.The weather pattern can influence the conditions under which tropical cyclones develop, but it does not determine the track or strength of an individual storm.For EP95, the next significant development will be the start of NHC advisories if the disruption becomes sufficiently organized. These would provide official track and intensity forecasts and indicate whether the modeled Southern California scenario gains or loses support.