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Pete Alonso took MLB’s best home run bets out of the red, hitting a home run at +404 odds on August 26. Home run props have a record of 21-82, with three no-bets this season.
The impressive betting record is a product of the improbable nature of home run betting. So, even with only 21 winning bets out of 103 settled bets, home run props have generated $54 in profit for anyone who bet $100 on each of the promoted home run bets at the stated odds.
Today is another opportunity to increase season earnings on MLB’s nine-game slate. Two of MLB’s best sluggers have the hottest home run props today, starting with one in the first contest of the day.
Best MLB Home Run Bets
Brandon Lowe (Pittsburgh Pirates – 2B)
Over 0.5 home runs (+364) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Brandon Lowe He has launched 29 home runs in 130 games and 574 plate appearances this year, hitting 23 against right-handers, 15 at home and nine at home against right-handed pitchers. He has also hit eight home runs in the second half.
Lowe has excellent batted ball data. Between 243 qualified hitters in 2026Lowe ranks 56th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.4%), tied for 48th in barrels per batted ball event rate (12.1%), 49th in hard hit rate (46.1%), tied for 46th in fly ball and line drive exit velocity (95.4 mph), tied for 108th in top exit velocity (111.1 mph), tied for 75th in launch angle sweet spot (36.0%) and tied for 87th in launch angle steepness (15.8 degrees).
The 32-year-old slugger has a favorable matchup this afternoon. Tidwell Blade He has allowed five home runs in five starts and eight relief appearances this season, allowing three in his last start and four of the home runs in his starts.
He 25 year old right-hander He has allowed four home runs to 84 left-handed batters this year and six to 115 since arriving in the majors last year. Tidwell has also struck out just 14.3% of the left-handed batters he has faced this season.
Tidwell’s struggles with missing bats against left-handed hitters directly influence Lowe’s wheelhouse. The odds of Lowe’s hitting a home run are too compelling to pass up.
Yordan Álvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 home runs (+259) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez He has hit 37 home runs in 138 games and 605 plate appearances this year, adding 28 against right-handed pitchers, 20 at home and 16 at home against right-handers. He is in the fight for the home run title.
As expected for a hitter with as many home runs as Álvarez, his hitting data is exceptional. Among 243 qualified hitters this season, Alvarez ranks second in barrel rate per plate appearance (10.8%), sixth in barrel rate per batted ball event (16.6%), ninth in hard hit rate (53.5%), tied for 18th in fly ball and line drive exit velocity (96.7 mph), second in top exit velocity (118.5 mph), fourth in launch angle sweet spot rate (41.7%) and tied at 30º in launch angle inclination (19.3 degrees).
Alvarez’s matchup on Thursday is delicious. Luis Castillo He has hit 23 home runs with 1.70 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 22 starts and three relief appearances this season. Castillo has allowed precisely two home runs in three consecutive starts, given up at least one home run in seven of his last eight, and allowed multiple home runs in six of those starts.
Besides, Castle He has given up 16 home runs to left-handed batters, 17 on the road and 13 on the road against left-handers. Castillo is also not in an ideal spot on the road to control his home run woes.
Daikin Park The 113th park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks eighth. It’s no wonder Alvarez has enjoyed so much home run success at home. It is very likely that today he will increase his home run record.
