MEXICO CITY, MEXICO – JUNE 30: Jesus Gallardo of Mexico, Julian Quinones of Mexico, Israel Reyes of Mexico, Obed Vargas of Mexico celebrate victory in the World Cup match between Mexico v Ecuador at Mexico City Stadium on June 30, 2026 in Mexico City Mexico (Photo by Eric Verhoeven/Getty Images)/
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It has become a fun party game in American soccer circles to discuss whether the US men’s national team can actually win the World Cup.
The general consensus is that, at the very least, a combination of increased talent level and home-field advantage should give the Americans the chance for their deepest run in the modern era of the program. And while no one can call themselves favorites, there is enough quality in the US that a Cinderella run like Morocco in 2022 or South Korea in 2002 doesn’t sound absurd.
But from the evidence so far, we may have been talking about a world that is not in charge.
Mexico finished impressively beating Ecuador 2-0 on Tuesday night in Mexico City to advance to the Last 16. In the process, El Tri proved to be a co-host nation with many of the necessary ingredients to make a deep run at the 2026 tournament.
Here are four reasons why Mexico looks like a real World Cup contender than the United States.
They can protect
The most striking thing about Mexico’s performance is that they continue to keep clean sheets.
At the end of Tuesday, Mexico is one of two teams that have not conceded a goal in the World Cup. (The other is Spain, who happen to be one of the oddball favourites.) And manager Javier Aguirre’s side have also closed shop without giving up much going forward, averaging two goals per game.
The reason defense is so important in a short tournament is that it allows you to survive a day when your attack isn’t clicking, in a format where one such day can mean the end of your tournament. And it says something about the team’s mental focus not to give up late consolation goals to their opponents, even in games they win comfortably.
While the Americans played well overall, their defense was nowhere near the level of the Mexicans. Yes, Turkey’s three goals came against a much-rotated team. But Mexico also made a lot of changes in the finals of their group and beat Czechia 3-0 in a game that the Czechs desperately wanted to stay alive in the tournament.
Their Performance in this Development
It’s not how you start the competition but how you end it. And Mexico’s trajectory has been rocking upward.
Their 2-0 win over South Africa was a deserved and comfortable finish, but a shock. The 1-0 win over South Korea was a study in successful half-time preparations. Their 3-0 win over Czechia was a complete performance against an opponent that had a lot to play for. And their victory over Ecuador was the strongest performance so far, completely winning the first half hour, then handling the game comfortably against South America for many people who thought that the dark horse of the tournament was entering.
In contrast, while the Americans’ opening game in a 4-1 victory over Paraguay was unusual, it could also have been an offense too soon. It has not reached that level in its next two group games.
All this could change when they face Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday night. But for now it feels like the USMNT’s momentum has died down in the opener, while Mexico continues to build.
Their Home Field Trip for Profit
Mexico will also play one match at the Estadio Azteca with England vs. DR Congo. But if they go beyond that round with games played in the United States, they will still enjoy a huge home field advantage.
In fact, El Tri often chooses to play home friendlies in the United States instead of Mexico due to the large number of Mexican-American fans who have more spending power than their brothers south of the border.
And in most markets in the United States, the game between the USMNT and Mexico will show a place that is very popular with Mexico unless the US team takes significant steps to manipulate ticket sales.
During Cinderella’s run to the finals, Mexico will play in Miami Gardens, Fla., in the semis, Atlanta in the finals and East Rutherford, NJ, in the finals. They can be picked to win the battle of the crowds at any of those stadiums against any opponent, including the Stars and Stripes.
They have clear leaders
Unlike in the United States, where leadership roles continue to be murky at times, the officials in Mexico’s dressing room are clear.
Captain Edson Alvarez is 28 years old. Raul Jimenez is still an incredibly productive veteran as a 35-year-old pitcher. Guillermo Ochoa, 40, still provides solid guidance on the bench even though he is no longer the starting goalkeeper.
On the US side, Tim Ream is the country’s senior official, but recent weak performances may reduce the 38-year-old’s power in the dressing room. Christian Pulisic is a very important player, but not the most demonstrative. Tyler Adams is Alvarez’s most obvious equal, but his injury problems over the years mean he’s had fewer caps than you’d want at this stage of his career.
None of this is a guarantee that Mexico is making a deeper run than the United States. But it helps in the margins.
