What does China’s long-range missile test in the South Pacific mean for Australia? | David Vallance

At 12.01pm on Monday, a test submarine of the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a missile in the nuclear-free zone of the South Pacific. This is the second time China has conducted a ballistic missile test in the Pacific in two years.

Coming on the day Fiji became Australia’s fourth official treaty partner, after the US, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, the timing of the test is interesting. It reads as annoying at best, downright coercive at worst.

It is unlikely that this was a temporary experiment. Even with a military that has grown so much in intelligence over the past decades, and will continue to do so, these things take time. That said, it is possible that the signing of the Ocean of Peace Alliance agreement has caused the test to move up in the timetable.

Washington, of course, looms large in Beijing’s thinking, and will be taking notice. But what does it mean for Australia and its regional partners?

China followed the letter of the law when it informed countries in the region, including Australia and New Zealand, that such a test would take place, but not the spirit of it. Transparency about weapons testing should be tried to build trust, or at least reduce suspicion, but if information about the test comes a few hours in advance this is not possible. China’s foreign ministry may ask regional countries not to “over-interpret” the test but the lack of any meaningful notification renders the request futile. How does demonstrating that a nuclear-armed missile can strike thousands of kilometers away demonstrate Beijing’s commitment to the “path of peaceful development”?

To quote the Chinese ambassador to Australia: “Rumors disappear when people have real information, and facts speak louder than words.”

So what are these facts?

First, the type of missile tested was reportedly one of China’s new JL-3 SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). These can be armed with multiple warheads, each of which can carry a nuclear warhead and hit a different target.

Second, this missile has a range of approximately 10,000km. This means it may have been fired from a nuclear-powered submarine operating in the South China Sea.

Third, China operates six submarines. Its expanding Bohai shipyards can probably build as many as six a year. And photos from Shanghai indicate that a second shipyard has begun building nuclear-powered submarines.

Given the Chinese navy’s patrol of Australia last year – including live exercises – and the harassment of Australian patrol planes, helicopters and naval personnel, all of this points to China’s growing willingness to use the military to force states across the Indo-Pacific to adopt better policies than Beijing. The People’s Republic would like Australia to stop conducting illegal transit operations in international waters so that it can strengthen its claims in the South China Sea, and is therefore harassing workers who perform those operations.

Since the time of Mao Zedong, China has given the PLA a mission to fulfill wait – roughly translates as coercion. In the era of Xi Jinping, wait has expanded significantly, aiming to preserve Beijing’s “era of great opportunities” and actively shape the region. The test is the latest evidence that China will use public displays of force as part of this strategy.

That this assessment is timed to coincide with the Ocean of Peace Alliance, is an action that is totally incompatible with the principles of “mutual respect, equal treatment, mutual benefit and win-win results, openness and inclusiveness”.

Pacific countries, including Australia, have expressed their commitment to the Pacific as a sea of ​​peace. One wonders if China prefers pieces of shrapnel at sea.