Brent crude rises above $97 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions choke global oil supply

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, disrupting global oil supplies for more than six months. Brent crude oil rose 0.05%, or $0.05, to $97.05, while WTI crude oil rose 1.03%, or $0.94, to $92.42.The latest developments came after Iran warned it would retaliate against any new US attacks on its assets, adding to concerns that the conflict could drag on and threaten energy infrastructure and shipping in the Gulf.The Strait of Hormuz remains a focus for traders, with heightened tensions around the key route for global crude shipments leading them to drive a risk premium on oil prices. Brent had already risen in the previous session to its highest level since July 24.Iran warned on Monday that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including US oil and gas interests, was vulnerable. The warning came after a weekend of tit-for-tat attacks, with no sign of progress toward a diplomatic breakthrough.Saturday’s U.S. strikes targeted three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, according to U.S. Central Command. The attacks came after attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on US warships operating in the region.The rally has also prompted Goldman Sachs to revise its oil price outlook. The bank raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI by $5 to $85 and $80, respectively, for December 2026. For 2027, it raised its forecasts to $80 and $75, respectively, based on a new assumption that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will continue into 2027.Marex analyst Ed Meir also expects crude oil prices to remain elevated through the end of the year as the war continues. In the financial services platform’s September commodity outlook, Meir said this was likely due to “the multitude of issues that still need to be addressed.”

Trump calls for oil prices

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said oil prices would fall sharply once the US achieves victory in its conflict with Iran and predicted that gasoline prices could eventually fall below $2 per gallon.In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump directly linked high energy costs to ongoing military operations in the Middle East and said markets would stabilize quickly after the conflict.“Oil prices will fall precipitously, like everything else is falling (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran,” Trump wrote. “Three dollars a gallon, but ultimately less than two dollars a gallon.”Trump also reiterated his warning that the United States would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.“Everything will happen quickly and Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. MAGA!” he added.

Iran warns of retaliation

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had previously warned Washington against any misadventures at Iranian energy facilities, saying there would be serious repercussions.In a post on X, Ghalibaf said Iran’s oil and gas production chain is “expanding, accessible and exposed.”He added: “American oil and gas companies along these waters and facilities share that exposure. If they hit our assets, you will be hit. We’ve already proven that. Ask the bases that are no longer viable.”Along with the post, Ghalibaf shared an image that read: “The lost decade of the American economy is approaching because some clowns at the DOW decided so.”His comments came as he shared a post by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who claimed that Iran’s “tanker fleet is defenseless” and reiterated Washington’s claims that Iran’s navy and air force had been destroyed.