Mets vs. Rays MLB Picks: Freddy Peralta Likely Very Motivated Against Former Team
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What impact will the failed Peralta trade have on the Mets organization? They have money to spend thanks to MLB’s richest owner, Steve Cohen, but the farm system was undoubtedly worse because of Peralta. The Mets landed Milwaukee’s veteran right-hander, who was coming off a spectacular 2025 season with the Brewers, for New York’s third overall prospect at the time in position player Jett Williams and fifth in pitcher Brandon Sproat.
Some guys just can’t stand pitching in the stressful environment of New York, and apparently Peralta is in that group with some guys like Carl Pavano, Hideki Irabu and Sonny Gray. Personally, I loved that deal for the Mets, because Peralta was going to be properly motivated this year as a pending free agent and still in his prime at 30 years old.
But he went 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 22 starts with the Mets (from May 23 to July 20, he produced a 6.67 ERA in 11 outings) before being traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline. Needless to say, Peralta’s value was very low at the time in early August, so New York landed three low-level prospects among Tampa Bay’s Nos. 12, 15 and 17 overall guys.
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You should never trade with the Rays, because they always seem to beat them the way things are. And perhaps no franchise knows how to pitch better. Peralta, who lost velocity on his fastball in 2026, has been a not-so-good 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five starts with his new club, but maybe the Dominican found something last Wednesday. He pitched six scoreless innings in Detroit with just two hits allowed, four strikeouts and no walks – Peralta’s first outing of the year without a free pass.
“Mechanically, I had everything working today,” Peralta said afterward. “It gave me more confidence before. I know I’m going to keep going from here. I hope to get five or six more.” [wins]. Why not?” Peralta added that adjusting his arm extension has been “very important” to the mechanical changes he’s made under Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder.
Does that mean Peralta is back or that the Tigers are just a poor offensive team? Maybe both, but Peralta has millions of dollars at stake the rest of the way to once again increase his value as a free agent. The SportsLine projection model predicts him at 5.0 innings, 5.3 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs.
No current Met has had much success in the regular season against his former teammate. Francisco Lindor is 1 for 11 with a home run and five Ks, and Juan Soto, who returned from a long stint on the IL over the weekend, is 1 for 12 with a home run.
Parlay in the same game Mets-Rays MLB
- Tampa Bay alternative +1
- Less than 1.5 runs in the first inning
- Height less than 10.5
DraftKings SGP Price: +140 (subject to change)
New York is running out of steam, but pulled off a 3-2 upset Monday at the Trop, thanks in part to a seventh-inning home run by Mark Vientos in his return from the IL. Their rotation right now is an interesting mix of promising youngsters who are part of the long-term future and some veterans who aren’t. It’s the latest tonight for 34-year-old Sean Manaea (4-6, 4.55 ERA). Manaea is left-handed, and that means he can probably pitch in the Show into his 40s if he wants and has moderate success.
But lately he hasn’t had much success. Manaea is winless in his last three and has allowed 14 runs in 18.0 innings and six home runs. Surely some Rays hitter will go to the yard today, as Manaea has allowed 20 gopher balls in total. Tampa Bay All-Star Yandy Díaz was 2-for-8 with a pair of solo home runs. The model predicts Manaea will have 5.7 innings, 5.7 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs for this one.
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Good start to the week in this MLB parlay slot, with Monday’s Athletics-Rangers game winning easily. Like that one, it’s about backing a home team with reason to worry against a visiting team playing the entire chain in a wildly disappointing campaign. And what should be a very motivated Tampa Bay pitcher. To avoid disaster in a one-run loss for the Rays, I chose +1 at a not-terrible price instead of a moneyline. That the Mets emptied the bullpen in Monday’s win only helps on this play.
