Labor ‘could lose up to 50 seats’ to the Greens if new North Sea drilling is approved | green party

Labor could lose dozens of seats to the Green Party if the government allows new drilling in the North Sea, according to internal research shared with The Guardian.

Green Party analysis suggests that up to 50 Labor MPs, including Andy Burnham’s key ally Louise Haigh, could lose their seats at the next election if the government fails to make urgent climate action a priority or allow new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea.

The research found that voters in these key Labor-Green seats want bold action to tackle the climate crisis, which has contributed to record heatwaves, devastating bushfires and devastating droughts this summer in the UK, and say Labor MPs will pay the price if demands are not met.

Rachel Millward, deputy leader of the Green Party, said: “If Labor is not swayed by science or the moral imperative to leave all fossil fuels in the ground, perhaps they will listen to the polls. The data is clear: voters want more from our government on climate change, and they certainly don’t want our new prime minister to stray from his party’s minimum commitments.”

Labor dismissed the claims, pointing out that since Burnham took office, the number of seats the Green Party is projected to win at the next election had fallen from 20 to seven.

Last month, Burnham, who has remained silent on the climate crisis since taking office, said he would be “pragmatic” on oil and gas and that decisions on new drilling would be made “in due course.” “The question is not whether Britain will continue to use oil and gas, the question is where it comes from,” he said.

Many Labor MPs are increasingly concerned about how support for expanded drilling will affect with an electorate alarmed by the worst drought since 1976, record heatwaves, bushfires, climate-related food inflation and potential supply shortages.

They say new drilling in the North Sea will do nothing to improve energy security or reduce bills, but it will pump even more taxpayer money into the coffers of oil companies, which have already made record profits this year.

The Greens have underlined their opposition to new licenses for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, including the Jackdaw gas field and the Rosebank oil field, west of Shetland. A decision on these projects will be made in the coming weeks and the Greens say they expect a further rise in Labor Party defectors if the projects are approved.

Millward said: “We are currently facing the worst crisis since the Second World War and yet, instead of stepping up, we have a Prime Minister who seems more interested in telling Donald Trump what he wants to hear about North Sea drilling than in taking the bold steps needed to keep us safe.”

Green Party researchers identified the 50 Labor-held seats that require the Greens to make the least change. They then compared constituency-level polls carried out by Friends of the Earth in October last year that included a question about whether the government should “go faster” in its efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

More than 50% of voters in each Labor-Green constituency supported the idea that the government should do more to tackle the climate crisis, with more than two-thirds backing the idea in several constituencies. Thirty-seven of the 50 seats met or exceeded the England-wide average of 55.5% favoring faster climate action, and 13 fell below that figure.

A Labor source dismissed the findings, saying: “This is an absolute fantasy from a party desperate for relevance. In the real world, Labor is delivering lower bills, energy security and good jobs.”

Luke Tryl, of the polling group More in Common, warned that urgent action on climate was “an important glue holding much of the Labor coalition together”.

He said: “If the Labor Party is seen to be backtracking on its commitment to tackling climate change and clean energy, it will no doubt deter some of the progressive voters that the Labor Party has been winning back under Burnham.”

Tryl said the approval of individual licenses in the North Sea might not trigger a surge in environmentalists as long as voters believed Labor was sticking to its manifesto promises on net zero emissions.

He added: “A pragmatic approach that continues progress towards net zero emissions but balances cost of living concerns is probably the best way for Labor to maintain and unite the different wings of its coalition.”

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