PLA report warns Chinese cities of possible nuclear attacks, singles out Japan as a ‘threat’

A new study from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force warned Chinese cities to prepare for possible nuclear attacks, pointing to Japan as a “major danger signal” to the world.According to the report, the probability of a large-scale global nuclear war was “relatively low,” the South China Morning Post reported.“However, the possibility cannot be ruled out that small or medium-sized states with or potentially nuclear weapons, driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts, could carry out a single terrorist attack with nuclear weapons against neighboring countries or against key cities of major powers,” he said.

Why did the report single out Japan?

The study noted that Tokyo had not yet joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the first legally binding international agreement banning nuclear weapons, adopted in 2017. It also stated that Japan was considering changes to its long-standing “three non-nuclear principles” of not possessing, producing or allowing the introduction of nuclear weapons.“Japan has not yet acceded to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the current Japanese government is even openly considering revising the ‘non-introduction of nuclear weapons’ principle within its ‘three non-nuclear principles’, sending an important danger signal to the international community,” the report states.In January 2022, the United Nations P5 (China, the United States, Russia, Great Britain and France), the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, issued a joint statement stating that “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.”But the PLA study warned: “Once certain countries or terrorist groups take such a risk, the possibility of Chinese cities suffering from a nuclear terrorist attack cannot be ruled out.”An official Chinese report published in January alleged that Tokyo “may have already secretly produced weapons-grade plutonium” and possessed “the technological and economic capabilities to achieve nuclear weaponry in a short period of time.”The January report also stated that Japan had “established a comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle system and possesses strong nuclear industrial capabilities.”

What a possible nuclear attack against a Chinese city would be like

The PLA Rocket Force study also modeled a scenario in which a major Chinese city was hit by a single low-yield nuclear terrorist attack involving a tactical weapon.Drawing on historical data from the 1945 bombing of Hiroshima in Japan, along with simulations conducted around the world, researchers identified a number of challenges for medical teams, including dangerous conditions, widespread social disorder and complex injury patterns.Beijing has already set up an emergency rescue network with more than 30 bases to treat victims of a nuclear attack. The researchers called for further expansion of treatment capacity, additional resources and specialized training.They also recommended that local authorities stockpile emergency supplies, including antibiotics and radiation protection equipment, and keep them in a state of “combat readiness.”Public education on nuclear and radiation safety, rescue protocols and protective measures should also be strengthened to minimize panic and irrational behavior during an emergency.Compared to the medical response to an accident at a civilian nuclear facility, even a low-yield nuclear terrorist attack could result in numerous victims and complex, polytraumatized injuries.Such an event would represent a “major test” for the medical capacity of any city or country, the authors wrote, urging China to “prepare for a rainy day.”Beijing has repeatedly accused Tokyo of seeking “remilitarization” and has long expressed suspicions about its nuclear ambitions.